China’s Semiconductor Capacity Set to Surpass Taiwan by 2030 Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Mainland China's chipmaking capacity is accelerating at a breakneck pace, positioning the country to overtake Taiwan as the world's leading semiconductor foundry hub by 2030. According to Yole Group, China's share of global foundry capacity will rise to 30% by the end of the decade, up from 21% in 2024. Taiwan, currently the leader, held a 23% share last year.

The surge is fueled by Beijing's aggressive state investment in domestic semiconductor production, particularly through the China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, or 'Big Fund.' This initiative has propelled national champions like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor to the forefront of the industry. In 2024 alone, China's monthly wafer production jumped 15% year-on-year, with local chipmakers now accounting for 15% of global foundry capacity.

Geopolitical tensions and U.S. export restrictions have only accelerated China's push for self-sufficiency. The construction of new fabrication plants, such as Huahong's 12-inch facility in Wuxi, underscores the scale and speed of China's manufacturing ramp-up. By 2030, the country's dominance in semiconductor production could reshape global supply chains and intensify competition in the tech sector.